Posted by
Mark Meed on Thursday, November 26, 2009 10:58:39 AM
Jim DeMint famously referred to the health care bill as President
Obama's "Waterloo". With all due respect to Senator DeMint I think
Stalingrad is a more apt analogy. Not only are the parallels more
numerous and significant but they also portend outcomes that are,
depending on your political persuasion, either ominous or hopeful.
Like
Stalingrad, the health care bill is an overreach by a leader seduced
into overconfidence by a string of early successes -- successes
obtained primarily through the tactics of rapid advance, surprise,
shock and misdirection, in which opponents are overwhelmed, surrounded
or by-passed before proper responses can be mounted.
The Germans
did it with Panzer divisions and Blitzkrieg, the White House and
Congress did it with flurries of enormous (and largely unread) pieces
of legislation and
Cloward-Piven, but the basic principles remain the same.
The
problem with such tactics is they have a limited window of
effectiveness. Success is predicated on a quick and overwhelming
victory before more conventional concerns -- like resupply and
vulnerability to counter-attack -- can reassert themselves. If your
opponent can survive long enough to understand your tactics he will
adapt to them, realizing among other things that your breakneck pace is
not sustainable.
The object then becomes attrition and delay. If
the juggernaut can be worn down, made to consume its resources as
quickly as possible and ultimately forced to slow down, it becomes just
another army a long way from home with exploitable weaknesses and no
cover. The Germans found this out at the gates of Stalingrad. The
Democrats are increasingly finding this out in the halls of Congress.
The
Tea Party rallies, Town Hall demonstrations, e-mails, phone calls have
had a cumulative effect, although the participants could have been
forgiven for questioning the significance or impact of any individual
act or event. Like the Russians , the opponents of Obamacare (and other
statist initiatives) seem to have spent most of their time retreating.
But each engagement, no matter how lopsided, has taken its toll. The
Germans weren't the only ones who expected to have things wrapped up by
the end of summer.
History proves the tactical errors can be
reversed or at least mitigated by leaders flexible enough to adapt in
their turn. Whatever one thinks of Bill Clinton one has to concede that
his own adjustments after the disastrous Hillarycare initiative and the
subsequent congressional defeat in 1994 saved his presidency.
Stalingrad was a terrible example of what happens when a leader shows
no such flexibility.
For the Germans the beginning of the end
came with the Russian breakthrough around both their flanks that
eventually surrounded them (remember those exploitable weaknesses I was
talking about). As bad as this was, it took the intransigence of their
leader to turn a major, but survivable, defeat into a disaster, because
rather than allow them to attempt a break out, Hitler ordered them to
stand in place. The completely preventable loss of over a million men
made the collapse of the Eastern front and, ultimately, the end of the
war inevitable.
In the case of health care legislation it is
becoming increasingly clear that our own leaders are equally resistant
to any notion of retreat. As an ideologue, and someone apparently given
over to the myth of his own invincibility, President Obama appears to
disdain any kind of backward step, and there is no evidence to suggest
the congressional leadership is any less extreme in their outlook.
(There's a great deal of evidence to suggest that some are good deal
more extreme but no need to put too fine a point on it.) Having poured
enormous amounts of political capital down these particular shell
holes, this is obviously where they want to make their stand.
This
leaves the Blue Dog Democrats -- and anyone else in the party with a
modicum of common sense -- in the unenviable position of realizing the
corridor for escape is rapidly closing and their leaders aren't even
thinking in those terms. Many, like those benighted soldiers before
them, will decide the "every man for himself" approach is the only
sensible one and will attempt breakouts on their own. This is called
desertion, and there was a lot of that at Stalingrad, but it would be
hard to fault anyone in those circumstances.
What seems to elude
the "do or die" elements of the party is even if they manage to achieve
something they can package as a win, the battle will rage on much
longer than any of them imagine (like the Germans who actually made it
into Stalingrad only to find themselves in a wilderness of snipers,
booby-traps and room-to-room fighting). As the full implications of
this bill become better known, they will face energized political
opposition, judicial challenges and grassroots activism on a scale that
will dwarf the events of last summer. They will also quickly find they
have neither the time, resources, nor the support to move onto the next
thing, and the pitched battles around health care coupled with a
failing economy will consume them.
Like Stalingrad, the passage
of the health care bill in the House of Representatives may well be
remembered as their furthest point of advance. Like their counterparts,
the Democrats would do well to look to the sky and note the coming of
winter.